>> HELLO, EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO AMANPOUR AND COMPANY.

HERE IS WHAT IS COMING UP.

IN SOUTH KOREA, THE PEOPLE FIGHT BACK AFTER A ANNOUNCEMENT OF MARTIAL LAW OVERTURNED HAS CRISIS BEEN AVERTED AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE WORLD.

I AM JOINED BY THE FORMER U.S.

AMBASSADOR.

>>> THEN, SYRIAN REBELS MAKE FURTHER GAINS DESPITE PUTIN PUSHING BACK, WE GET THE LATEST.

AND -- >> IT IS VERY HARD TO SEE WHAT IN THIS PILE OF POLICY IDEAS IS GOING TO HAVE PEOPLE FOUR YEARS FROM NOW FEELING THERE ARE BETTER OFF.

>> WHY THERE MAY BE TROUBLE AHEAD FOR THE U. S. ECONOMY IF TRUMP ANNEX HIS IDEAS.

> >> THEN --UNDER TRUMP COULD AMERICA BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST BULLIES?

THE ATLANTICS THINK SO.

AND WE ARE TOLD WHY.

> >> AMANPOUR & CO. IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY, CANDACE KING WHERE, THE SYLVIA AND SIMON PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTI-SEMITISM.

THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LAYLA AND MICKEY STRAUSS.

SEATON J MELVIN, CHARLES ROSENBLUM.

AND BY CONTRIBUTION TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU, THANK YOU.

> >> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I AM SITTING IN.

START EXCEL CRAYONS MAY BE SLEEPING A LITTLE EASIER AFTER THE CHAOS OF TUESDAY, AN OUT WEARING POLITICIANS TO TEXT THE COUNTRY'S DEMOCRACY.

TODAY MANY ARE DEMANDING THE IMPEACHMENT AND RESIGNATION OF THE PRESIDENT AFTER HE SPRUNG A SURPRISE DECLARATION OF MARTIAL LAW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO THE STAGGERING IMAGES OF A SOUTH KOREAN OPPOSITION LEADER POPPING A FENCE.

SOMETHING 190 PEOPLE SUCCESSFULLY AND UNANIMOUSLY DEPICT THE EVENTS HAVE BEEN A SHOCK FOR SOUTH KOREA'S ALLIES ACROSS THE WORLD ESPECIALLY UNITED STATES WHICH HAS NEARLY 30,000 TROOPS POSTED IN THE COUNTRY.

RUNNING ME NOW TO DISCUSS WHAT COMES NEXT IS THE FORMER U. S. AMBASSADOR TO SOUTH KOREA, SHE JOINS US NOW FROM WASHINGTON, D. C. MADAME AMBASSADOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME, WHAT A WHIRLWIND THE PASSWORD FOR HOURS HAVE BEEN AND WE STILL HAVE LIKELY WEEKS IF NOT MONTHS BEFORE WE HAVE A REAL SENSE OF STABILITY IN SOUTH KOREA.

PARLIAMENT HAS SUBMITTED A VOTE ON REMOVING THE PRESIDENT BY EITHER WRITING OR SATURDAY.

TO DO SO, THEY WILL NEED A SUPER MAJORITY, TWO THIRDS OF BACKING OF THE COUNTRY 300 NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WHICH WOULD REQUIRE USED TO HAND ALL OF THE PRESIDENTS, MEMBERS OF THE PRESIDENT'S OWN PARTY TO JOIN IN THE BOAT, DO YOU THINK THEY WILL LIKELY SUCCEED?

>> WELL, I THINK THAT IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSE VOTE, CERTAINLY JUST TO WIND BACK A LITTLE BIT I DO THINK THAT A CRISIS WAS AVERTED WITH THE DECISION TO RESEND THE MARTIAL LAW TO KOREA JUST A FEW HOURS AFTER IT WAS ANNOUNCED, BUT IT HAS LEFT PRESIDENT IN A VERY VULNERABLE POSITION.

IN THE VOTE TO NULLIFY THE MARTIAL LAW THAT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY VOTED IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT WITH SOCIALS --SOLDIERS SURROUNDING THEM AS YOU DESCRIBED, THEY WERE JOINED BY ABOUT 10 MEMBERS OF THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY, THE RULING PARTY INCLUDING THE LEADER OF THAT PARTY AND OTHER PEOPLE FROM THE PRESIDENTS PARTY, PRESIDENT YOON'S PARTY , THE MAYOR OF SEOUL.

GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE LEADING CONSERVATIVE NEWSPAPER IN SOUTH KOREA THIS MORNING CALLED WHAT YOON DID AN INSULT TO DEMOCRACY, I THINK THERE WILL BE SOME VOTES FROM THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FROM THE RULING PARTY FOR IMPEACHMENT WHETHER IT WILL BE ENOUGH, THEY WILL PROBABLY NEED ABOUT 10 OR SO, IT'S HARD TO CALL BUT I WOULD SAY THAT PRESIDENT YOON IS IN A PRETTY PRECARIOUS POSITION RIGHT NOW.

>> LET'S TAKE A GLASS HALF-FULL APPROACH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF INSTABILITY IN THE COUNTRY AND MILITARY RULE UP UNTIL JUST THE LAST 40 YEARS, THE FACT THAT WE SAW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THOUSANDS OF KOREANS TAKE TO THE STREET REALLY A FORCE OF DEMOCRACY AT PLAY IN REAL TIME ACROSS TELEVISIONS AROUND THE WORLD, WAS THAT IN THE MIDST OF ALL THE CHAOS AND INSTABILITY SOMETHING THAT WAS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT REASSURING FOR YOU TO WATCH?

>> FOR ME IT WAS SOMEONE INSPIRING.

LONG BEFORE I WAS AMBASSADOR TO KOREA, I WAS A POLITICAL OFFICER IN KOREA IN THE 1980S FOR SIX YEARS AS I WATCHED A VERY TUMULTUOUS AND NOT INEVITABLE MOVE TOWARD DEMOCRACY.

SEEING WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HERE, YES ACTUALLY TOOK SOME HOPE FROM THAT.

THE ISSUE OF PEOPLE POWERING KOREA IS A VERY INTERESTING ONE AND IT GOES IN DEEP EVEN BEFORE THE MODERN ERA BUT WHEN PEOPLE ARE ON THE STREETS PEACEFULLY PROTESTING IT DOES HAVE A BIG IMPACT IN THE GOVERNMENT, IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AND I DO THINK THE FACT THAT ESPECIALLY THOSE THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WERE VERY HEAVILY ARMED TROOPS WERE SENT IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AFTER THE DEFINITION OF MARTIAL LAW, THEY ASKED THEM TO STEP BACK AND THEY DID, THEY ALLOWED, THAT IS WHAT ALLOWED THIS VOTE TO GO FORWARD AND THEN YOU HAVE THIS IMMEDIATE RESPONSE FROM PEOPLE SO I THINK IT WAS SOMETHING THAT FORCED ALL THE REAL CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS.

THERE IS STILL OBVIOUSLY MANY DIFFICULTIES AHEAD BUT I WOULD SAY MORE THAN HALF-FULL, WE DID SEE SOME OF THE STRENGTH AND RESILIENCE AS WELL AS THE DIFFICULTIES FOR KOREAN DEMOCRACY ALTOGETHER IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

>> ASSUMING WE DON'T SEE A RESIGNATION FROM PRESIDENT YOON HIMSELF, EVEN IF PARLIAMENT DOES VOTE SUCCESSFULLY I BELIEVE THEN IT GOES TO THE SOUTH KOREA'S CONSTITUTIONAL COURT TO REAFFIRM THAT VOTE.

BUT, THIS ALL LEADS TO THE QUESTION OF HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN AND HOW DID NO ONE SEE THIS COMING?

WE KNOW PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS INVESTED A LOT OF POLITICAL CAPITAL, A LOT OF TIME IN HIS PIVOT TO ASIA BY INVESTING HEAVILY IN THE U. S. RELATIONSHIP WITH SOUTH KOREA, WAS TRAVELING IN AFRICA AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND IT WAS NOTABLE THAT IT TOOK SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE WHITE HOUSE TO REALLY PUT OUT A CONCRETE STATEMENT IN RESPONSE TO WHAT WAS UNFOLDING.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?

AND THE FACT THAT THERE DIDN'T SEEM TO BE MANY WARNING SIGNS AT ALL AS TO WHAT WOULD UNFOLD?

>> I THINK WASHINGTON WAS BLINDSIDED BY THIS AS WAS ALL OF SOUTH KOREA , OUTSIDE OF PRESIDENT YOON'S VERY SMALL CIRCLE.

MANY PEOPLE IN HIS MILITARY AND GOVERNMENT ALSO DID NOT KNOW THIS WAS COMING.

PART OF THE ANSWER IS, I THINK THAT THIS IS A RATHER IMPULSIVE IF I MAY SAY, ACT BY PRESIDENT YOON .

HE TOOK HIGH RISK AND A RISK THAT HE IS GOING TO PAY A PRETTY HIGH PRICE HAVING TAKEN.

BUT CERTAINLY I THINK IN WASHINGTON AND THE U. S. , PEOPLE WERE WELL AWARE THAT PRESIDENT YOON'S POPULARITY , POLLING IS PRETTY LOW, HE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE FACT THAT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IS STRONGLY IN OPPOSITION PARTIES HANDS EVER SINCE THE APRIL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS EACH YEAR, HE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH A LONG-TERM DR. STRIKE BUT, I THINK YOON HIMSELF DID THIS IMPULSIVELY OUT OF FRUSTRATION CONSULTING WITH A VERY ISOLATED GROUP AND IT CAUGHT EVERYONE INCLUDING WASHINGTON BY SURPRISE.

THAT SAID I THINK WASHINGTON AND THE ADMINISTRATION DID MAKE CLEAR THAT THEY HOPE THIS WENT FORWARD ACCORDING TO THE RULE OF LAW, VERY RELIEVED OBVIOUSLY THAT YOON PULLED BACK SO QUICKLY.

I'M SURE THERE IS ALSO A LITTLE BIT OF REGRET THAT PRESIDENT YOON WHO HAS BEEN A GOOD PARTNER FOR WASHINGTON FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO STRENGTHEN THE RELATIONSHIPS IS IN THIS KIND OF TROUBLE.

THAT SAID I WOULD ALSO SAY THAT SOMEONE WHO HAS SEEN U. S. CAREER RELATIONS THROUGH THICK AND THIN AND ALSO THROUGH PEACEFUL TRANSFERS OF POWER ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM FOR THE LAST 30+ YEARS, THE ALLIANCE IS VERY STRONG AND THAT IS SHOWN IN PUBLIC POLLING IN COUNTRIES, IT HAS SHOWN IN THE POSITIONS OF THE RESPECTIVE PARTIES, NOTWITHSTANDING THEIR POLARIZATION ON OTHER ISSUES, SUPPORT FOR THE ALLIANCE, THE U. S. AND SOUTH KOREA WORKING TOGETHER ON A VARIETY OF FRONTS.

SO MANY OTHER AREAS, IT REALLY IS ONE OF THE FEW I WOULD SAY BIPARTISAN AGREEMENTS IN SOUTH KOREA AND DARE I SAY I HOPE IN THE UNITED STATES AS WELL.

>> HOPEFULLY EVEN IF THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS GOES FORWARD, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ELECTIONS SOMETIME SOON, SOONER THAN THE LAST TIME.

WE SHOULD NOTE THAT THE PRESIDENT THAT LED TO THE IMPEACHMENT WAS PROSECUTED BY PRESIDENT YOON HIMSELF, THAT TOOK SIX MONTHS .

IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS COULD MOVE SWIFTER -- SWIFTER HERE.

IN THE PRESIDENCY THAT WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT POLICY.

AS YOU'VE NOTED, PRESIDENT YOON INVESTED HEAVILY IN THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES, HE REACHED OUT WITH A VERY ICY RELATIONSHIP .

IT IS REALLY WITH THAT OF THE UNITED STATES IN TERMS OF TAKING ON NORTH KOREA.

AND ALSO ARMING UKRAINE AS WELL, DO YOU WORRY AT ALL ABOUT WITH A CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP PARTY AND POLICY FOR ALL OF THOSE AREAS .

>> WOULD SERVE THE U. S. BEST IF YOU LIKE, AND THE U. S. KOREA ALLIANCE AND ALL OF THESE AREAS WE DO HAVE SUCH A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP IS THAT THE LEADER IN POWER IN SOUTH KOREA WOULD BE SOMEONE WHO ENJOYS A STRONG DEMOCRATIC MANDATE AND LEGITIMACY WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF SOUTH KOREA'S POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT.

WITH THAT, I THINK WE FOUND OVERTIME THAT WE DO WORK TOGETHER VERY WELL BECAUSE AS I SAID, I THINK THERE IS A SENSE OF SHARED UNDERSTANDING AND SOUTH KOREA PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL CLIMATE, PRESSURES FROM CHINA, ALL THE REST OF IT IS THAT WE REALLY DO NEED TO WORK TOGETHER AND DEEPEN THE ALLIANCE.

THE CHALLENGES.

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE OUR OWN TRANSITION HERE AS WELL JUST TO SAY LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT TRANSITION, IS THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY VOTES TO IMPEACH PRESIDENT YOON IT GOES TO A CONSTITUTIONAL COURT, THE COURT WOULD HAVE TO VOTE THAT HE BE IMPEACHED BEFORE HE WOULD THEN LOSE OFFICE AND THERE WOULD BE AN ELECTION.

IN THE INTERIM HE HAS BEEN A PRIME MINISTER NOW TWICE, HE IS MY COUNTERPART IN WASHINGTON THE FORMER MINISTER OF FINANCE DEFINITELY A SAFE PAIR OF HANDS .

I THINK IT WOULD BE CONTINUITY OBVIOUSLY YOU NEED TO HAVE AN ELECTION IN A LEADER.

THAT SAID, I DO NOT TAKE IT AS AN GIVEN THAT IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WHENEVER THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IT'S NOT CLEAR TO ME AT ALL HOW THAT WOULD COME OUT.

>> KATHLEEN STEVENS, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME, I APPRECIATE IT.

> >> RETURNING NEXT TO SYRIA AFTER TAKING THE COUNTRY'S SECOND LARGEST CITY OF ALEPPO.

IT IS REIGNITING A LARGELY DORMANT WAR AS YOU CAN SEE ON THIS MAP, GOVERNMENT FORCES STILL MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY.

RUSSIA AND IRAN IN THE BACK BUT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS, LET'S GET THE LATEST ON WHAT THIS MEANS WITH COLLIN CLARK, HE IS THE DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH OF GLOBAL.

:, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

AS WE NOTED, THINGS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MUTED IN THE CONFLICT, FROZEN IS PROBABLY A BETTER TERM SINCE 2020, HAS THIS IRRUPTION NOW FROM THE INSURGENT FIGHTERS, HAS THIS IN THE REBEL FIGHTERS, HAS THE SURPRISE YOU AT ALL?

ESPECIALLY NOT TO DRAW COMPARISON WITH SOUTH KOREA BUT THIS ALSO LAST WEEK CAUSED A LOT OF SURPRISE AROUND THE WORLD.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME, INDEED IT WAS SURPRISING, THERE HAVE BEEN MURMURINGS OF A MOUNTING REBEL OFFENSIVE, THE TURKS IN SOME WAYS TO SUPPORT SOME OF THESE GROUPS THAT MAKE UP PART OF THIS KIND OF BROADER REBEL ALLIANCE WHEN THOSE FAILED, THE LARGEST OF THE REBEL GROUPS AND PROBABLY THE MOST POWERFUL PUSH FOR AND IT WAS ALMOST AS IF THEY WERE TRYING TO PLAY CATCH- UP AND SO WE ARE IN A SITUATION NOW, THE REBELS ARE ON THE MARCH IN THE REGIME.

>> SO WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF GETTING CONTROL OF NOT ONLY ALEPPO BUT IF THEY DO GAIN CONTROL OF HAMA AS WELL ?

>> WE HAVE SEEN THEM ATTEMPTING TO TAKE CONCERN FOR CIVILIANS WE HAVE SEEN THEM ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE VARIOUS SERVICES TO LOCAL POPULATIONS, THIS IS REALLY SMART POLITICS.

IT IS SOMETHING THAT THEY HAVE LEARNED FROM THE MISTAKES OF THE ISLAMIC STATE WASHING OUT ISIS HAD ALIENATED LOCAL SYRIANS, THEY ARE TRYING NOT TO REPLICATE THAT AND IN MANY WAYS, THEY'RE HOPING TO ACQUIRE MORE LEGITIMACY THEN THE REGIME HAS.

>> ALSO SPLINTERED OFF OF AL QAEDA, BACK IN 2017 AND HAD BEEN ON THE U. S. TERROR WATCH LIST AS WELL BUT THERE HAS BEEN AN EVOLUTION.

THE TERROR LIST AS WELL, THERE HAS BEEN AN EVOLUTION OF NOT ONLY THE GROUP BUT ESPECIALLY THE LEADER INSURGENCY THAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.

IT WAS ONE THAT APPEARED TO BE VERY WELL PLANNED AND PREPARED FOR, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS CHANGE IN DEMEANOR IN THIS REPORT WELCOMING , SPECIFICALLY REACHING OUT TO CHRISTIANS SAYING THEY ARE NOT A THREAT TO THEM, IS THIS SOMETHING THAT YOU THINK IS LASTING?

IS THIS A FACADE?

WHAT MORE DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE LEADER OF THIS GROUP?

>> AGAIN, SMART POLITICS ON BEHALF OF HIM TODAY IN NORTHWEST SYRIA, IN MODERN-DAY REVOLUTIONARY, WHETHER OR NOT THIS GROUP IS ACTUALLY MODERATED COMPARED TO ITS PAST IT SEEMED SO BUT I WOULD JUST LIKE TO SAY IF YOU ARE MODERATE COMPARED TO AL QAEDA, YOU'RE STILL PRETTY EXTREME.

THERE IS STILL SOME REALLY BAD INDIVIDUALS AMONG THIS GROUP SO WHILE THE REGIME IS DEPLORABLE AND ODIOUS IN MANY WAYS, LET'S NOT PICK SIDES AND I SEE THIS KIND OF FALSE DEBATE TAKING PLACE ONLINE AS WELL, HTS IS AND THAT THAT THEY'RE BETTER THAN THE ASSAD REGIME.

WE DON'T WANT ANY TERRORIST GROUP CONTROLLING.

>> YEAH, ASSAD IS THE BRUTAL DICTATORSHIP THAT WE KNOW NOW.

WE CAN SORT OF GO BACK TO THE SAYING THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY VERY WELL STILL BE AN ENEMY AND THAT SEEMS TO BE THE APPROACH FROM THE U. S. AT THIS POINT.

OTHERS IN THE REGION INCLUDING ISRAEL ARE CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THINGS UNFOLD.

RUSHER IN MOSCOW SAYS IT IS STILL BACKING ASSAD AND HIS MILITARY BUT HOW SPREAD THIN IS MOSCOW AT THIS POINT?

THEY WITHDREW THEIR TROOPS, ONCE THEY INVADED UKRAINE FOR THE SECOND TIME IN 2022, WE KNOW THAT IRAN HAS BEEN HURT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS PROXY, HEZBOLLAH ESSENTIALLY BEING DECIMATED IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF FIGHTERS THAT CAN PARTICIPATE IN SYRIA AS WELL, WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE ASSAD?

>> SO EXACTLY, IT IS POPPING UP ASSAD BECAUSE IT IS CONCERNED ABOUT ITS OWN MILITARY ASSETS .

>> THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT RESUPPLY ROUTES TO HEZBOLLAH.

THIS IS WHAT WE CALL GREAT POWER COMPETITION.

VARIOUS ENTITIES SPONSORING THEIR OWN PROXY GROUPS.

THEY HAVE THEIR OWN NATIONAL INTEREST AND EVEN WITH THE ALLIANCE OF THE IRANIANS, THOSE PRIORITIES DON'T ALWAYS RACK AND STACK THE SAME WAY THEY EACH HAVE THEIR OWN DIFFERENT INTEREST IN THE COUNTRY IT IS MORE OF A MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE FOR RIGHT NOW.

THE TRICK FOR THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES WILL BECOME, HOW DO YOU KIND OF DEAL A BLOW TO THAT TRIO, ASSAD, RUSSIA, AND IRAN .

NOT AN EASY NEEDLE TO THREAD AND IT'S CERTAINLY GOING TO BE AT THE VERY TOP OF THE TERM FOREIGN POLICY TEAMS AGENDA DAY ONE WHEN THEY TAKE OFFICE.

>> AND WE SPENT A LOT OF TIME FOCUSING ON ASSAD AND HIS BACKERS, THAT BEING RUSSIA AND IRAN, AND WE KNOW IN TERMS OF THE PRIMARY BACKERS FOR HTS?

IS IT TURKEY AND IF IT IS, WHAT IS THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE YEAR?

>> THEY CERTAINLY SUPPORT OTHER REBEL GROUPS THERE.

I HAVE MY SUSPICIONS ABOUT HOW THEY ACQUIRED THAT OR HOW THEY OBTAINED THAT THEY WANTED A BUFFER BETWEEN TURKEY AND SYRIA TO KIND OF BLUNT THE BLOWBACK FROM TERRORIST GROUPS THEY'RE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE KURDS PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY IN TURKEY HAS TAKEN IN MILLIONS OF SYRIAN REFUGEES OVER THE COURSE OF THIS CONFLICT.

THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR KICKED OFF IN 2011 SO THEY HAVE A LAUNDRY LIST OF THEIR OWN PRIORITIES AND I THINK ALL OF THESE ACTORS BOTH STATE AND NONSTATE ARE ALL FOR A POSITION, THE NEXT SIX TO EIGHT WEEKS WILL BE PIVOTAL BEFORE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TAKES OVER AND EVERYBODY IS TRYING TO CEMENT THEIR OWN GAINS AND USE THOSE GAINS AS POTENTIAL LEVERAGE.

>> WILL BE WATCHING AS YOU SAID, REALLY CRUCIAL WEEKS AHEAD.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US WITH YOUR EXPERTISE.

> >> IN A MATTER OF WEEKS, AS WE NOTED, DONALD TRUMP WILL TAKE OFFICE AGAIN AND THOUGH THERE ARE AMERICAN STILL FEELING THE STAYING, MANY ECONOMISTS SAY THE PRESIDENT-ELECT IS INHERITING A FAIRLY STRONG ECONOMY AND BOOMING JOBS MARKET.

THERE ARE REAL CONCERNS THAT AMERICANS COULD BE IN FOR A ROUGH PATCH.

WE DISCUSSED THE IMPLICATIONS WITH ANALYST STEPHEN RATNER WHO PREVIOUSLY SERVED AS COUNSELOR TO THE TREASURY SECRETARY AND LET THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION SUCCESSFUL EFFORTS TO RESTRUCTURE THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY.

> >> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, I WANT TO ASK YOU BECAUSE YOU WROTE QUITE AN IMPORTANT ARTICLE ABOUT THE ECONOMY UNDER THE NEXT TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, TRUMP 2.

0.

WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT POLICY.

AS YOU KNOW QUITE A LOT OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE , MANY BELIEVE THAT THE ECONOMIC PICKS ARE MORE TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN.

LET ME JUST PUT THESE TO YOU.

FOR INSTANCE, THE TREASURY SECRETARY, CONSERVATIVE ECONOMIST TO LEAVE THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL.

ARE THOSE GOOD CHOICES?

>> LET ME SAY TWO THINGS ABOUT THAT, FIRST OF ALL FROM A, ON A PERSONAL LEVEL IN TERMS OF SOME OF THE ISSUES THAT SOME OF THE OTHER NOMINEES ON THIS NATIONAL SECURITY SIDE ARE HAVING AS YOU NOTED, I DON'T THINK THAT IS THE CASE HERE .

THEY ARE PEOPLE OF INTEGRITY AND GOOD MORAL PRINCIPLES AND ACTUALLY QUALIFY FOR THEIR JOBS IMPORTANTLY, THAT IS NOTEWORTHY.

THE SECOND THING ON THE POLICY SIDE, I WOULD SAY THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE LESS EXTREME THAN SOME OF THE OTHER CHOICES HE MIGHT'VE MADE IN TERMS OF PEOPLE WHO WOULD BE UNBELIEVABLY AGGRESSIVE TOWARD CHINA THINGS LIKE EVEN THE GOLD STANDARD, THINGS LIKE PRETTY FAR OUT IDEAS, THESE ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE NORM.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL FOR EXAMPLE HAS BEEN QUITE HOSTILE TO TARIFFS.

I THINK IT IS BETTER THAN IT COULD'VE BEEN, NOT QUITE WHAT WE MIGHT HAVE LIKED IN A PERFECT WORLD.

>> LET'S JUST TALK ABOUT TARIFFS BECAUSE TRUMP HIMSELF, I THINK IT'LL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL OR HE TOLD RALLY THAT HE LOVES THAT WORD, IT IS THE BEST WORD IN THE DICTIONARY AND TRUE TO HIS RHETORIC ANYWAY, HE HAS THREATENED TO SLAP MASSIVE TARIFFS ON NOT JUST AS NEIGHBORS NORTH AND SOUTH, WITH WHOM HE NEGOTIATED A NEW TRADE DEAL LAST TIME AROUND, BUT AS YOU MENTIONED, CHINA AND EVEN MORE ON CHINA THAN BEFORE AND HE HAS POTENTIALLY TARGETED EUROPE AS WELL.

I JUST SPOKE TO A FORMER CHANCELLOR AND THIS IS WHAT SHE SAID ABOUT THE POTENTIAL BOOMERANG EFFECT OF TARIFFS.

>> PRESIDENT TRUMP ALWAYS SAID THAT HE WILL HAVE A BETTER LIFE DUE TO HIM IF THEY WERE --ARE VERY GOOD REASONS TO LOOK AT THE WORLD BEING SORT OF LINKED BY ALL OF THESE BONDS.

THEY DON'T HAVE ALL OF THESE RAW MATERIALS AND RAW RESOURCES THAT THEY NEED ON THEIR OWN.

>> SO, WHAT DO YOU THINK GIVEN THE U. S. NEEDS FOR INSTANCE, Aá70 MILLION --SO MANY MINERALS FROM CHINA, WHAT YOU THINK THE MASSIVE TARIFFS WOULD BE FOR THE AMERICANS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

>> I SHOULD MENTION WHAT CAME INTO THE REVIEW , I COINCIDENTALLY HAD LUNCH WITH THEM TODAY, AND BRUSH UP ON THAT WHOLE LINE OF DISCRETION.

I THINK ANY SERIES ECONOMISTS WILL TELL YOU THAT IN GENERAL, TARIFFS ARE NOT A GOOD THING.

THAT GLOBALIZATION, FREE-TRADE, WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE DAYS AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND THINGS LIKE THAT SHOULD MAKE EVERYBODY BETTER OFF IF THEY SPECIALIZE IN THE THINGS THAT THEY'RE GOOD AT.

THE CHALLENGES THAT YOU DO HAVE COUNTRIES THAT ARE NOT FREE TRADERS, CHINA BEING CERTAINLY THE POSTER BOY FOR IT.

I THINK I WOULD DISTINGUISH BETWEEN TRUMP'S IDEA THAT TARIFFS GENERALLY ARE A GOOD THING, I THINK THEY ARE GENERALLY NOT A GOOD THING WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE ARE SOME SELECTED PLACES THAT ONE MIGHT WANT TO USE TARIFFS WHEN YOU'RE DEALING WITH PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT PLAYING BY THE RULES SO TO SPEAK.

SO, HE HAS TALKED ABOUT THINGS LIKE A 10% TARIFF ON EVERYTHING BROUGHT INTO THE UNITED STATES, HE HAS EVEN MENTIONED 20% ON EVERYTHING BROUGHT INTO THE UNITED STATES, THAT IS CRAZY.

I DO THINK FROM TRUMP 1.

0 AND EVEN WHERE WE ARE SEEING 2.

0, I THINK TRUMP IS A NEGOTIATOR, HE IS A REAL ESTATE GUY HE DOES DEALS.

THE WAY HE DOES DEALS AND EVERYBODY DOES IN THEIR OWN WAY THIS IS STARTS WITH A REALLY EXTREME POSITION AND THEN SCARES PEOPLE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF HIM AND THEN GRADUALLY WALKS BACK.

THAT WAS EXPERIENCE WITH 1.

0.

IF I WANT TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND I'M NOT SURE WHETHER THAT IS JUSTIFIED BUT I'M GOING TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR A MOMENT, I WOULD SAY THAT IN THE ACTUALITY THE TARIFF THING WILL END UP BEING MUCH LESS THAN WHAT HE IS SAYING AND PROBABLY IN BOUNDARIES THAT WE CAN LIVE WITH.

>> I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THAT BECAUSE HE STAYED AN ABSOLUTE FACT THAT CHINA DOES HAVE A HUGE NUMBER OF UNFAIR PRACTICES WHETHER IT IS STEALING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY OR THE DUMPING OF VARIOUS COMMODITIES AND THINGS LIKE THAT AND JOE BIDEN'S ADVISER IN CHINA AND FOR TRUMP A LITTLE BIT AS WELL, HE SAID HE WAS SO EAGER FOR A CHINA TRADE DEAL THAT HE TOOK A BAD DEAL.

ESSENTIALLY AGREEING TO KEEP IMPORTED CHINESE MANUFACTURING GOODS WHILE EXPORTING AMERICAN COMMODITIES TO CHINA.

AND THEY CALLED IT A TIME TESTED RECIPE FOR DECLINE, WHAT IS YOUR ANALYSIS OF THAT?

>> I THINK THE RIGHT ANSWER IS THAT THE TARIFFS AGAINST CHINA UNDER 1.

0 DIDN'T REALLY ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING.

THEY DIDN'T REALLY CREATE A LOT OF AMERICAN JOBS AND THE JOBS THEY CREATED BY MANY ANALYSIS THAT HAVE BEEN DONE CAUSED, COST A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY PER JOB WHEN YOU ARE THE COST OF THE HIGHER PRICES THAT ARE PAID, TARIFFS GO ON IMPORTED GOODS BUT THIS IS PART OF THE RATIONALE.

THEY RAISE THE PRICES OF DOMESTIC GOODS.

IT RAISES THE PRICES AS -- OF ANYTHING.

IN ANY EVENT I THINK THE RECORD IS PRETTY CLEAR THAT IT CREATED NOT MANY JOBS AND IT CAME AT A VERY HIGH COST AND MEANWHILE THE CHINESE NEVER LIVED UP TO THEIR END OF THE BARGAIN, THEY DID NOT BUY THE QUANTITIES OF SOYBEANS AND OTHER THINGS THAT THEY SAID THEY WERE GOING TO BUY.

THERE IS REALLY NOTHING GOOD TO SAY.

THE CHALLENGE OF CHINA RIGHT NOW IS THAT THEY STILL DO NOT PLAY FAIR BUT I THINK UNFORTUNATELY THE HORSES KIND OF OUT OF THE BARN I JUST DON'T SEE IT, I DON'T SEE ANY SET OF POLICIES THAT'S REALLY GOING TO BRING IT BACK.

>> IT COULD CAUSE MASSIVE INFLATION AND EVEN POTENTIALLY ALL PUT TOGETHER, IT COULD BE EVEN A GLOBAL RECESSION BECAUSE THEY HAVE PROMISED A BETTER STANDARD OF LIVING I WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK HIS POLICIES WILL DO FOR THOSE PEOPLE WHO VOTED IN.

I THINK FRANKLY TO MANY MAINSTREAM ECONOMISTS HOW THEY ARE GOING TO ACCOMPLISH THE OBJECTIVE.

WE TALKED ABOUT TARIFFS, THEY ARE GOING TO RAISE PRICES.

MEANING THAT IT HELPS PEOPLE AT THE TOP, NOT JUST IN DOLLAR TERMS BUT IN PERCENTAGE TERMS, SOMEBODY AT THE HIGHER AND HAD A HIGHER INCREASE, A LARGER PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN THEIR AFTER-TAX INCOME.

THE MASS DEPORTATION OF IMMIGRANTS MIGHT RAISE WAGE RATES AT THE BOTTOM IT IS GOING TO SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THIS COUNTRY WHERE WE HAVE NOT TOO MANY WORKERS BUT TOO FEW WORKERS.

AND THE TRUST POLICIES THAT CREATE COMPETITION AND THINGS LIKE THAT NOT GOING TO HELP THE AVERAGE PERSON.

IT IS HARD TO SEE IN THE PILE OF POLICY IDEAS IS GOING TO HAVE PEOPLE FOUR YEARS FROM NOW FEELING THAT THEY ARE BETTER OFF.

WE SHOULD ALL WISH FOR SUCCESS HERE IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO SEE BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR.

>> WHY DO YOU THINK THEN, GIVEN WHAT YOU JUST SAID AND GIVEN THAT THIS AMERICAN ECONOMY IS YOUR FRIEND THAT BLOOMBERG AND THE ECONOMISTS AND EVERYBODY HAS SAID IS THE ENVY OF THE WORLD AND I THINK THAT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID A LOT OF LEGISLATION IS AIMED TOWARD WORKING MIDDLE CLASS, I UNDERSTAND THE COST OF LIVING BUT WHY DO YOU THINK THEY WERE NOT ABLE TO MAKE THE MESSAGE GET THROUGH TO PEOPLE THAT YOU ARE JUST MAKING RIGHT NOW?

>> I THINK BECAUSE IT WAS REALLY EMBEDDED IN JUST A FEW WORDS OF WHAT YOU JUST SAID BECAUSE OF INFLATION AND ALL OF THAT, THE COST OF LIVING I THINK WERE YOUR WORDS.

THE FACT IS THAT UNFORTUNATELY INFLATION HAS TAKEN A SIGNIFICANT TOLL ON THE AVERAGE AMERICAN AND IT IS JUST A FACT THAT THE AVERAGE AMERICANS INFLATION WAGES REALLY DID NOT MOVE UP BY ANY MEANINGFUL AMOUNT.

AND ALL OF THIS KIND OF STUFF, THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SITTING IN ILLINOIS WATCHING THE PRICE OF GROCERIES GO UP DOESN'T REALLY RESONATE WITH HIM OR HER.

I THINK IT IS FUNDAMENTALLY THE ECONOMIC CHALLENGE.

HE TRIED TO SELL BY NYMEX AT ONE POINT BUT, THERE WAS THE OLD AMERICAN SAYING, THE DOGS WERE EATING THE DOG FOOD IT JUST DIDN'T REALLY WORK.

>> WHAT HE THINK OF THE BLIND TESTS SO TO SPEAK?

LET ME JUST READ OFF SOME OF THESE, BASICALLY THEY PUT A BUNCH OF POLICIES TOGETHER.

AND THEY WERE CONSISTENTLY MORE POPULAR BY THESE GROUPS TO PUT THESE AHEAD.

WHY DO YOU THINK THEN AS SOON AS THE POLICIES WERE ATTACHED TO A NAME, TRUMP GOT BY FAR MORE MARKS, HIGHER MARKS?

>> IT IS A GREAT QUESTION AND AS AN ECONOMIC GUY I THINK THAT MOST ELECTIONS ARE ABOUT ECONOMICS.

IT IS A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE.

I THINK THE OTHER TWO ISSUES THAT REALLY HURT THE DEMOCRATS, ASIDE FROM ALL OF THE COMMOTION AND TURMOIL, HE IS NOT RUNNING AND SO ON AND SO FORTH BUT THE TWO OTHER ISSUES I THINK THAT REALLY HURT THE DEMOCRATS WERE IMMIGRATION WHICH FRANKLY THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION JUST GOT WRONG, THEY WERE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF IT COMING IN IN THE AMERICAN PUBLIC REACTED VERY NEGATIVELY TO THAT AND THEN THEY WALKED BACK AND I WAS FRANKLY TOO LATE.

YOU CAN CALL IT WILL GIVES HIM OR WHATEVER YOU WANT CALL IT BUT ONE OF THE MOST EFFECTIVE ADS THAT THE TRUMP PEOPLE RAN DURING THE CAMPAIGN WAS SOMETHING, THEY SAID SOMETHING TO THE EFFECT OF SHE HER, HE HIM, THEY THEM, IT WAS A REFERENCE TO TRANSGENDER BATHROOMS AND ALL OF THE STUFF.

THEY RAN ABOUT THE FACT THAT THE GOVERNMENT PAYS FOR TRANSGENDER TRANSITION SURGERY FOR PEOPLE IN PRISON.

IT WAS AN INCREDIBLY EFFECTIVE AD, I THINK AMERICA, I THINK THE NEEDLE ON WOKE IS HIM FOR LACK OF A BETTER WORD, HAS MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY AND DEMOCRATS IN THE CAMPAIGN JUST COULD NOT CATCH UP TO WHERE THE AMERICAN PUBLIC WAS GOING ON THAT ISSUE.

>> JUST TO BE CLEAR, THE WHOLE TRANSITION SURGERY IS ALSO A FACT UNDER THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IT JUST HAPPENS TO BE A LAW IN MANY PLACES BUT I GET YOUR POINT.

WHAT I KIND OF WANT TO END UP ASKING YOU IS, A LOT OF ECONOMISTS ARE BEGINNING TO WRITE ABOUT HOW DEMOCRACY WON'T SURVIVE IN A PLACE LIKE AMERICA IF IT IS CONSTANTLY SUCH AN UNEQUAL SOCIETY.

THERE'S THIS QUOTE, THEY SAID IT WAS AN ECONOMIC EXPERT TO SAID IT IS AMAZING THAT SO MANY OF THE WEALTHY IN AMERICA BACKED THE HARRIS PLAN TO QUOTE, UNQUOTE REDISTRIBUTE THE MONEY OR THE RESOURCES TO PEOPLE.

BENEFITING MOSTLY THE ELITE AND THE RICH, ET CETERA.

AT WHAT POINT DOES THIS GROWING INEQUALITY HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED?

TO THINK IT CAN BE ADDRESSED UNDER TRUMP 2.

0 WITH HIS POLICIES?

>> I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT THE EQUALITY FOR MANY YEARS, IT HAS ONLY GOTTEN WORSE.

IT IS GROSSLY UNFAIR.

IT CREATES TWO CLASSES, AND MULTICLASS.

AND IT NEEDS AND SHOULD BE ADDRESSED AND I DO THINK THAT SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WERE DONE UNDER THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION AND UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION ARE HELD AT THE MARGIN.

THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT MAKE IT EVEN WORSE, TARIFFS, THEY'RE PAYING MORE, THE TAX CUTS ARE REGRESSIVE, I CAN KEEP GOING DOWN THE LIST, I DON'T BELIEVE .

IS >> IT JUST INCREASES THE POOL OF HIGHLY DISSATISFIED CITIZENS.

THAT IS FOR ANOTHER TIME.

STEPHEN MATTER, THANK YOU SO MUCH INDEED FOR JOINING US.

>> MY PLEASURE, THANK YOU.

>> WITH TRUMP'S INAUGURATION ON THE HORIZON, PRESENT CONVERSATIONS CONTINUE AROUND THE PRESIDENT-ELECT POLICIES BOTH AT HOME AND ABROAD.

A POLITICAL COMMENTATOR AND FORMER SPEECHWRITER FOR PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH AND IN HIS LATEST PIECE TO THE ATLANTIC, AMERICA'S LONELY FUTURE, HE WANTS THAT THE U. S. COULD BECOME A GLOBAL BULLY.

>> DAVID, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU.

>> 80 YEARS AGO AT THE END OF WORLD WAR II, THE UNITED STATES HELPED SET UP A WORLD ORDER THAT WAS INVOLVED WITH ECONOMIC COOPERATION COMING OUT OF THE AGREEMENT.

IT WAS A DEFENSE ALLIANCE AGAINST TYRANNY LIKE NATO AND INTERNATIONAL ORDER AS IN THE U. N. , NOW IN YOUR ATLANTIC PC SAY ALL OF THAT IS THREATENED, WHAT WORRIES YOU THE MOST?

>> DONALD TRUMP IS OFTEN DESCRIBED AS AN ISOLATIONIST.

THAT IS NOT REALLY TRUE AND THAT IS NOT THE WAY HE IS DIFFERENT FROM ALL OF THESE PREDECESSORS FROM FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT THROUGH RONALD REAGAN AND FORWARD, TRUMP IS IN DIFFERENT TO THE REST OF THE WORLD OR HE DOESN'T HAVE BUSINESS DEALINGS, HE IS VERY MUCH INVOLVED WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD.

THE DIFFERENCES, SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WAR, SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION, THE AMERICAN LEADERS HAVE UNDERSTOOD THAT IF AMERICA FIND ITS OWN PROSPERITY AND IT'S AND SECURITY, BY COOPERATING WITH STRONG ALLIES.

THE TRUMP VIEW IS ESSENTIALLY PREDATORY.

IT IS A PREDATORY VIEW OF THE WORLD NOT AN ISOLATIONIST VIEW.

THEY SHOULD HAVE , NOT ALLIES BUT SUBJECT NATIONS, THEY SHOULD PAY TRIBUTE INSTEAD OF COOPERATING, HE IS VERY CLEAR HE TALKS TO OTHER COUNTRIES, I WANT YOU TO PAY ME.

AND OF COURSE FREE AND OPEN TRADE, WE SHOULD HAVE HIGH TARIFF WALLS PROTECTING AMERICAN MARKETS IN ORDER TO FORCIBLY, FOR SMOOTH INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE.

>> PART OF THAT NOTION AS YOU SAY HAVING HIGH TARIFF WALLS AND THE TERRITORY BACK TO THE UNITED STATES IT DOES SEEM LIKE A CRITICISM THIS --OF THIS WORLD ORDER, THE MANUFACTURING OF THE JOB IN THIS COUNTRY, YOU SAY IN YOUR PIECE THAT TRADE MUTUALLY BENEFITS THE NATIONS AND SOMETIMES IT DOESN'T IT SEEMS TO ME THAT AFTER CHINA GETS INTO THE WTO, WE LOSE OUR INDUSTRIAL BASE, WHY AM I WRONG ON THAT?

>> FIRST, CHINA IS, [THE CHINA CASE A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE ARGUMENT THAT WAS USED ABOUT CHINA WAS USED BEFORE THAT ABOUT THE TRADE WITH MEXICO, ABOUT TRADE WITH THE EASTERN RIM WITH COUNTRIES LIKE TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA .

THROUGH ALL OF THE YEARS SINCE WORLD WAR II, THERE HAVE BEEN CONSTANT COMPLAINTS, WE ARE LOSING THINGS BECAUSE WE TRADE FREELY WITH OTHERS.

OVER THAT TIME THE UNITED STATES HAS BECOME ASTONISHINGLY RICHER IN ALL KINDS OF WAYS.

WE HAVE BECOME RICHER IN TANDEM WITH OTHERS BECAUSE THEY HAVE BECOME RICHER TOO.

>> LET ME HOLD THERE BECAUSE YOU SAY WE ARE ASTONISHINGLY RICHER BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE GOT RICH IN THE FINANCE INDUSTRIES AND EVERYTHING ELSE BUT PEOPLE WHO WENT TO THE EARLY-MORNING BUS TO GO TO WORK, THEY GOT LEFT OUT OF THIS .

>> I DON'T THINK PEOPLE HAVE GOOD MEMORIES OF HOW POOR THIS COUNTRY WAS UNTIL VERY, VERY RECENTLY.

>> WE DIDN'T BECOME POOR WHEN PEOPLE LEAVE THE FACTORY FOR THE OFFICE.

WE DON'T BECOME POOR BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE NOT MINING COAL UNDERGROUND, DONALD TRUMP OFTEN, ONE OF THE REASONS HE APPEALS TO OLDER VOTERS IS THAT THIS IS FROM 50 YEARS AGO, IT IS TIRES, RUBBER, STEAL, CARS, THOSE ARE THE INDUSTRIES THAT ARE ALWAYS MUST PRESENT TO HIM.

ONE OF THE REASONS HE IS SO MAD AT GERMANY IS BECAUSE GERMANY TOTALLY DOMINATES NOWADAYS.

HEAVY TALK TO ACTUAL GERMANS, THEY WILL TELL US THAT OUR BIGGEST ALBUM IS GERMANS.

WE ARE NOT DOING SO WELL AT MEDICAL IMAGING AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BUT WE ARE ALL THERE WHATEVER IT IS.

AND I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE ARE ALL IN DANGER OF IN THE POST AND, IN THE AFTERMATH IT TRUMP SHOTS, THE INDULGING MYTHS THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS SOLD, WE TRY TO TELL PEOPLE THESE MYTHS AREN'T TRUE.

WE ARE TOLD THAT MANY PEOPLE BELIEVE THEM AND WE CAN'T CONTRADICT WHAT MANY PEOPLE HAVE AND THAT WE ARE POOR AND GOING BACKWARDS THERE SOMETHING MAGIC ABOUT MAKING STILL IN GAUZE AND THE COUNTRY CAN ONLY BE PROSPEROUS IN THE WAY IT WAS PROSPEROUS IN 1975.

>> EXPLAINED TO ME WHY THERE HAS BEEN A BACKLASH?

NOT JUST A BACKLASH REPRESENTED BY DONALD TRUMP BUT AROUND THE WORLD AND IT LEFT A LOT OF WORKERS BEHIND.

>> I DON'T AGREE WITH YOU AT ALL AND IT IS NOT TRUE THAT WORKERS ARE LEFT BEHIND.

YOU'RE CERTAINLY RIGHT THAT THERE IS BEEN A BACKLASH .

ONE OF THE QUESTIONS THAT YOU HAVE TO ASK AND I CHALLENGE PEOPLE ALL OF THE TIME, IF YOU ARE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHY IN EVERY COUNTRY THERE IS A BACK LASH, GERMANY WHICH HAS BEEN A POWERHOUSE OF EXPORTING MANUFACTURED GOODS ALSO HAS A REACTIONARY MOVEMENT.

SO IS EXPLOITING A LOT OF MANUFACTURED GOODS WAS A WAY TO PREVENT HAVING A MOVEMENT YOU WOULD EXPECT THAT THERE ISN'T GOING TO BE ONE IN GERMANY BUT THERE IS ONE, A POWERFUL ONE.

THERE ARE THREE THINGS IN COMMON, FIRST, THE AGING OF THE BABY BOOMER GENERATION, HUGE GENERATION BORN AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR, THEY BEGAN ENTERING THE 60s IN 2010 WHICH IS EXACTLY WHEN THESE MOVEMENTS BEGAN TO GET GOING.

THESE PEOPLE CAME TO THE RETIREMENT FORCE AND HERE IS THE SECOND COST, THE CAME INTO RETIREMENT AT EXACTLY THE MOMENT THERE WAS A GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS THAT LEFT MANY OF THESE POURING INTO THEIR 60s.

AND THE LAST THING, THIS IS THE THING WE HAVE IN COMMON.

UNLIKE THE TRADE BALANCE, MIGRATION ON A SCALE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD.

THAT HAS STARTED AGAIN IN 2010 AND THAT IS A PRODUCT OF GLOBAL PROSPERITY TOO.

THE REASON SOME PEOPLE ARE ON THE MOVE IS NOT BECAUSE THERE ARE 70 MORE DESPERATE PEOPLE, THERE ARE 70 MORE PEOPLE WHO CAN AFFORD 10,000, 20,000, $30,000 TO PAY A HUMAN TRAFFICKER TO BRING THEM TO A PLACE WHERE THEY COULD AS A RATIONAL INVESTMENT TRY TO GET A BETTER LIFE AND A FEW OF THESE HIGHLY MOTIVATED PEOPLE COME, IT IS BETTER FOR THEM AND BETTER FOR THE RECEIVING COUNTRY.

OF A LOT OF THEM, IT BECOMES VERY STRESSFUL.

THAT IS THE THING THAT UNITED STATES, BRITAIN, GERMANY, CANADA, FRANCE, ALL OF THE COUNTRIES HAVE THIS IN COMMON.

IT VARIES SO MUCH FROM PLACE TO PLACE.

>> DO YOU FEEL THAT MAYBE WE LET IN TOO MUCH ASYLUM-SEEKERS AND MIGRATION WHETHER IT BE IN FRANCE, ENGLAND, UNITED STATES?

>> FOR SURE, I THINK ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN PARTICULAR HAS TURNED TOWARD PROTECTIONISM, DONALD TRUMP IS THE MOST PROTECTION AS PRESIDENT SINCE HERBERT HUBERT, JOE BIDEN WAS THE SECOND MOST PROTECTIONIST.

WHEN DEMOCRATS CONFRONTED THE REAL PROBLEM, IMMIGRATION, THEY DIDN'T WANT TO FACE IT.

THEY CHOSE A PROBLEM THAT MADE THEM MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE, TRADE.

THE REMEDIES FOR TRADE, THE THINGS THAT MANY DEMOCRATS LIKED, AND MUCH MORE STATE'S ECONOMIC POLICY.

MORE PROTECTION, THEY LOVE DOING UP.

AND SO IF THAT WAS THE PROBLEM, THEN THEY HAD THE ANSWER.

IF THE PROBLEM WAS IMMIGRATION, THEY DIDN'T LIKE IT.

>> YOU SAY THAT OTHER GREAT POWERS, CHINA, INDIA, RUSSIA, THEY FACE SUSPICIOUS AND EVEN HOSTILE COALITIONS OF POWERFUL ENEMIES AND YOU SAY THE UNITED STATES IS BACKED BY POWERFUL FRIENDS.

IS A LOOK AT IT NOW, WE'VE DONE SOMETHING THAT WE'VE AVOIDED FOR 50 YEARS WHICH IS PUSHING RUSSIA AND CHINA INTO MORE OF A PARTNERSHIP .

INDIA SEEMS TO BE LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION AND I RAN.

WE HAVE SOME OF THE BIGGEST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD'S ALIGNED AGAINST US NOW.

SO WHY HAS THIS ORDER SOMETHING THAT DONALD TRUMP SHOULD PROTECT?

>> THE SOVIET UNION MILITARY LINES GO BACK TO THE 1960S.

IS NOT A NEW THING.

THESE PREDECESSORS, IT IS VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH THE UNITED STATES AND A LOT TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT INDIA AND CHINA FOUGHT A WAR.

THERE IS NO COUNTRY IN THE WORLD THE SAME SIZE AS CHINA FROM VIETNAM ON ITS NAVAL BORDERS, THE PHILIPPINES, JAPAN.

OF COURSE THE SOVIET UNION AND ABOVE.

IT'S NOT TRUE THAT THE UNITED STATES PUSHED INDIA, SORRY, CHINA TO ENGAGE VASTLY BLOODIER THAN THE WARS OF THE 1990S.

THAT AGGRESSION HAS BEEN CHECKED, NOT COMPLETELY SUCCESSFUL BUT SURPRISINGLY SUCCESSFUL.

RUSSIA HAS TURNED TO ANOTHER GREAT POWER OF ADVERSARY IN THE UNITED STATES.

WHAT ALL OF THIS DEMONSTRATES IS THE RELATIONSHIPS THAT THE UNITED STATES DOES HAVE.

>> HE TALKED ABOUT THE NEED TO SUPPORT THIS, GEORGE W. BUSH AND A LONGTIME PART OF THAT REPUBLICAN WING, IT WAS VERY INTERNATIONALIST AND IN THE SENSE OF PRESIDENT BUSH, THE YOUNGER IN FAVOR OF PROMOTING DEMOCRACY AS PART OF IT.

AND IT GOT US INTO WARS LIKE IRAQ AND OTHER PLACES THAT SOME PEOPLE ESPECIALLY VOTERS THESE DAYS ARE SAYING WELL, CALLING THEM FOREVER WARS EXPLAINED TO ME HOW YOU WOULD DEFEND THAT.

>> THE FOREIGN POLICY IN THE PAST TWO DECADES HAS BEEN SOMETHING THAT NOT A PERSON THINKS ABOUT UNTIL I REMIND YOU RIGHT NOW.

WHEN GEORGE BUSH CAME INTO OFFICE, THE OVERPASS, HIS OVERWHELMING OVERRIDING CONCERN WAS OF THE 50,000 NUCLEAR WARHEADS AND IT WOULD END UP IN THE HANDS OF ROGUE STATES OR TERRORISTS OR BE USED BY THE DESPERATE FAILINGS.

IN THE UNITED STATES WITHOUT, SPENT AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF RESOURCES.

NOT ONE OF THE 50,000 WARHEADS WENT ASTRAY.

IT WAS THE MOST ASTONISHING SUCCESS IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY SINCE THE MARSHALL PLAN.

THE WEAPONS OF THE SOVIET UNION WERE CONVERTED INTO FUEL FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOT JUST IN THE UNITED STATES BUT FRANCE AND OTHER NATIONS TOO AND ALLIED NATIONS WROTE THE CHECKS TO EMPLOY THE SCIENTISTS INTO SECURE THOSE WEAPONS.

IT IS COMPLETELY FORGOTTEN.

THE UNITED STATES EMBARKED AND TRIED TO BRING SECURITY WITH AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ.

THAT IS TRUE.

AND THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WE SHOULD STUDY WHY IT WASN'T SUCCESSFUL, WILL BE OVERAMBITIOUS, WHAT EXACTLY WENT WRONG AND IT'S REALLY WORTH PONDERING.

I SPENT A LOT OF TIME THINKING AND WRITING ABOUT THESE QUESTIONS.

>> THE FACT THAT SOME OF THESE INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS DID NOT GO WELL AND SHOULD NOT MAKE US FORGET THE OTHER COMMITMENTS THAT WENT SO WELL THAT THEY ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS IN AMERICAN HISTORY SINCE THE MARSHALL PLAN.

>> YOU POSTED RECENTLY THAT WE ARE HEADED TOWARD A U. S. CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS VASTLY BIGGER THAN WATERGATE, WHAT HE SAY THAT?

>> THE CENTER OF THE WATERGATE CRISIS WAS THAT PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON GOT INVOLVED IN A POLITICAL SCANDAL.

RATHER HE ORDERED OR PEOPLE WORKING FOR HIM BURGLARIZE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT HAD NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE ON AMERICAN POLITICS, IT HAD HAPPENED BEFORE.

WHEN THE NEXT PEOPLE WERE CAUGHT, NIXON'S RESPONSE WAS TO TRY TO MOBILIZE AND SHUTDOWN THE INVESTIGATION OF THE BURGLARY.

OTHER PRESIDENTS HAVE DONE SIMILARLY BAD THINGS BUT THIS MOBILIZATION FAILS, IT'S COMPLETELY FILLED, NEITHER AGENCY WOULD COOPERATE, WHEN NIXON TRIED TO INSTALL A STOOGE AS THE HEAD OF THE FBI, THE AGENCY REJECTED HIM AND THE DEEP LEAKS THAT YOU CAN'T PUT A DIRECTOR TO PROTECT YOU FROM YOUR OWN WRONGDOING, NIXON WAS UNSUCCESSFUL.

HE ASKED FOR THEM, HE NEVER GOT THEM.

THE AGENCIES REFUSED TO DELIVER THEM.

WHEN I SAY IT IS BIGGER THAN WATERGATE, BUT TRUMP WANTS TO DO IS TAKE CONTROL OF THE SPECIAL FBI BUT ALSO THE OTHER AND SECURITY AGENCIES AND USE THEM AS ARMS OF HIS PERSONAL POWER.

NIXON FAILED.

NIXON DID IT SECRETLY .

TRUMP GETS SUPPORTED.

IT WAS THE SAME PREDICAMENT.

BUT THIS TIME BIGGER AND MORE DANGEROUS AND MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED.

YOU TALK ABOUT THE PERSONAL CORRUPTION OF TRUMP'S FAMILY FOR THE MONEY THAT MAY BE GOING TO THEM BUT EXPLAINED TO ME NOW, IS THAT UNDERMINED, THE ARGUMENT BY PRESIDENT BIDEN'S PARDONING OF HIS SON HUNTER BIDEN?

>> ARGUMENT IS NOT UNDERMINED WHEN I TRY TO EXPLAIN TO PEOPLE WHY IT IS WRONG, ASKING EVERY GUEST WHO COMES INTO THE OVAL OFFICE, DID YOU STAY IN MY HOTEL LAST NIGHT?

WHEN THE PRESIDENT REFUSES THE FBI REQUEST TO DEMOLISH THE HEADQUARTERS AND REPLACE IT BECAUSE THERE WAS A RISK THAT THE FBI HEADQUARTERS WOULD BE REPLACED BY A HOTEL THAT WOULD COMPETE WITH HIS, I CAN EXPLAIN ALL OF THAT.

BUT IT DOESN'T HELP WHEN THE PEOPLE DEFEND TRUMP AND SAY YEAH, WHAT ABOUT BIDEN AND HIS SON?

YOU COULD SAY THAT IS NOT AS BAD, IT IS AN OTHERWISE VERY HONEST CAREER BUT IT DOESN'T HELP AND THAT IS WHY IT'S SO WRONG FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN TO DO IT IS ABOUT WHAT THE IDEA OF AMERICA IS.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT THE GREAT METAPHOR OF SITTING ON A HILL, IT COMES FROM THE SERMON ON THE MOUNT BUT IT IS ALSO JOHN WINTHROP WHEN THE PILGRIMS FIRST COME TO AMERICA, HE GIVES THE SERMON AND THEN IT IS RONALD REAGAN'S TROPE THROUGHOUT THE PRESIDENCY AND TO THE END OF HIS PRESIDENCY.

YOU CALL THEM HOUSE STANDS THIS THE CITY ON A HILL, HOW WOULD YOU ANSWER THAT QUESTION?

>> FOR MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD, THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF THINGS ABOUT AMERICAN LIFE THE PEOPLE DON'T LIKE FROM FAST FOOD TO MICKEY MOUSE TO MANY MISTAKES IN AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY.

WHEN THEY ARE DOWN AND PEOPLE ARE IN TROUBLE, ALL OF THE WORLD THEY LOOK TO THE UNITED STATES AS THE ANSWER.

IT IS THIS GOLDEN LIGHT OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE EVEN IF WE DON'T ALWAYS LIVE UP TO IT.

THAT IS REAGAN'S METAPHOR.

BECAUSE THE CITY WAS ON A HILL, WAS VERY VISIBLE.

THEREFORE EVERYONE HAD TO BE ON THEIR BEST BEHAVIOR AT ALL TIMES.

.

DONALD TRUMP SEES THE UNITED STATES AS WORSE.

WHEN HIS FRIEND IN A TV INTERVIEW ASKED HIM, TRUMP ANSWERED WE ARE NOT SO INNOCENT EITHER.

AND SOME VERY DEEP WAY, THAT IS TRUE, WE ARE NOT SO INNOCENT.

SOMETIMES TO PROTECT , AMERICAN PRESIDENTS HAVE DONE SOME ROUGH THINGS AND SOME OF THE ROUGH THINGS CANNOT STAND UP TO SCRUTINY AND YET WE STILL SAY THEY WERE WRONG.

THE BELIEF HAS ALWAYS BEEN WHEN WE DEPART FROM OUR IDEALS, WE UNDERSTAND THAT WE ARE DOING IT AND WE DON'T COMPROMISE THE IDEAL ITSELF AND MAYBE WE APOLOGIZE LATER BUT WE UNDERSTAND THIS IS WHERE WE FELL SHORT BECAUSE THIS OVER HERE IS WHERE WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE.

DONALD TRUMP IS THE FIRST PRESIDENT .

HAS NO SENSE OWING ANYTHING TO THE REST OF THE PLANET.

HE WANTS TO DOMINATE THE FORCE AND POWER.

NO ONE IS THAT POWERFUL TO DOMINATE THE WHOLE WORLD.

THE UNITED STATES IS STRONG BECAUSE IT HAS FRIENDS.

THEY HAVE BECOME JUST IN THE BIG EMPIRE LIKE THE WAY RUSSIA WAS.

PEOPLE MAY FEAR YOU BUT THEY WON'T RESPECT YOU, THEY WON'T TRUST YOU.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> AND FINALLY, A TIRELESS FIGHT FOR FREEDOM, TAKE A LOOK AT THESE NEW IMAGES OF IRANIAN ACTIVISTS LEAVING HOSPITAL TO SPEND 21 DAYS AT HOME.

MAKING A RALLYING CALL, WOMEN, LIFE, FREEDOM.

SHAKING THE REGIME .

IT IS A SHORT BREAK THAT COMES AS IRANIAN AUTHORITIES ALLOW HER TO LEAVE PRISON TO RECOVER FROM SURGERY.

A DECISION HER FAMILY IS CALLED TOO LITTLE TOO LATE.

SHE HAS BEEN MOST OF THE PAST TWO DECADES BEHIND BARS ACCUSED OF ACTING AND SPREADING PROPAGANDA.

ACCUSATIONS THAT SHE DENIES.

EARLIER THIS YEAR SHE SPOKE WITH HER DAUGHTER WHO HAS BEEN CAMPAIGNING TO TRULY COME HOME.

>> I HOPE TO SEE MY MOTHER AT LEAST ONCE AGAIN IN MY LIFE, I CAN'T KNOW THIS BUT I DO HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT MY MOTHER WILL BE RELEASED.

IF WE ALL WORK TOGETHER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHE WILL ONE DAY BE FREE.

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